Prediction models of the incidence of aphids (toxoptera citricidus) and rind border (prays endolemma diakonoff) on citrus production in Kasibu, Nueva Vizcaya using the weather elements/ (Record no. 125)

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040 ## - CATALOGING SOURCE
Transcribing agency NVSU
100 ## - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Melchor, Olive T.
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Title Prediction models of the incidence of aphids (toxoptera citricidus) and rind border (prays endolemma diakonoff) on citrus production in Kasibu, Nueva Vizcaya using the weather elements/
Statement of responsibility, etc. Olive T. Melchor
260 ## - PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC.
Place of publication, distribution, etc. Bayombong:
Name of publisher, distributor, etc. Nueva Vizcaya State University,
Date of publication, distribution, etc. 2019.
300 ## - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION
Extent x, 62 leaves :
Other physical details illustrations ;
Dimensions 28 cm.
500 ## - GENERAL NOTE
General note Citrus is a banner commodity of Nueva Vizcaya State University and Cagayan Valley (Region 2). The greatest volume of mandarin production comes from Kasibu, Nueva Vizcaya and the production is declining partly attributed to pests and diseases specifically aphid and rind borer insects. This study aimed to model the incidence of aphids (Toxoptera citricidus) and rind borers (Prays endolemma Diakonoff) using the different weather elements in Kasibu, Nueva Vizcaya specifically temperature, rainfall, humidity, and solar radiation. Time Series Analysis using expert modeler was used to generate weather models and NCSS was used to forecast weather values. Multiple Linear Regression Analysis was also used to generate the prediction model of the incidence of aphids and rind borer. The temperature model is ARIMA (0,1,9), rainfall model is ARIMA (0,0,0), humidity model is ARIMA (1,1,0), and solar radiation model is ARIMA (3,1,0). It was found out that Temperature 1, Temperature 2, and Rainfall 2 have significant correlation with the population of aphids, and weather elements have no significant correlation with the population of rind borers resulting to no generation of rind borer prediction model. it was also found out that the best predictor of the incidence of aphids are temperature 2 and rainfall 2. This study recommends that the timing for the pest control measures for aphids should be administered two weeks before the population could increase.<br/><br/>Keywords: Cirus, Aphids, Rind Borers, Weather Elements, Modeling, ARIMA, Time Series Analysis, Multiple Linear Regression Analysis<br/><br/>
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General note Thesis (Master of Science Teaching - Mathematics)
504 ## - BIBLIOGRAPHY, ETC. NOTE
Bibliography, etc. note Includes appendix and bibliographical references.
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    Dewey Decimal Classification     Nueva Vizcaya State University - Bayombong Campus Nueva Vizcaya State University - Bayombong Campus Graduate School Section 03/20/2025 Donation   T M518p 2019 T844 03/20/2025 03/20/2025 Thesis

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